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FX Strategies in 2006: U.S. Dollar versus Yen
Warnock, Francis E.Case DARDEN-BP-0505-ECorporate GovernanceRiding the early morning Metro North train from Grand Central to Greenwich on April Fool’s Day 2006, Luke Anthony briefly pondered the revitalization of some of the once grand Harlem neighborhoods. But then his thoughts turned back to the task at hand: to form a cohesive view of the likely path of the Japanese yen. Was the dollar on one of its patented upward swings that would bring it to 140 ¥/$ before long? Or is the past year’s dollar apprecia...Starting at €8.20
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A User’s Guide to BPM5-Based BOP and IIP Accounts
Warnock, Francis E.Technical Note DARDEN-BP-0523-ECorporate GovernanceThis note presents a short description of BPM5-based balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) presentations. It refers to data for South Africa, but given that there are worldwide standards for countries that report both BOP and IIP, it should provide guidance for understanding the data of just about any country.Starting at €8.20
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Whither the U.S. Economy? - Teaching Note
Warnock, Francis E.; Rodriguez, Peter L.Teaching Note DARDEN-BP-0542TN-ECorporate GovernanceTeaching note for product BP-0542Starting at €0.00
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The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts
Warnock, Francis E.Technical Note DARDEN-GEM-0106-EEconomicsFully updated through early 2016, in this case, the protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that a double-dip recession was highly unlikely? Or was the fact that the yield curve had flattened over the past few years suggest a coming slowdown in economic growth? From time to time, the market focused on the slope of the yield curve. What can it tell...Starting at €8.20
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Euro Zone Convergence, Divergence...and Then What?
Warnock, Francis E.; Debaere, PeterCase DARDEN-GEM-0107-EEconomicsA hedge-fund strategist had two decisions to make. First, what was the path of core euro zone long-term interest rates likely to be over the next year? Was the dramatic decline in German long rates over the past few years an aberration that would soon be reversed, or was it part of the “new normal” that would persist for some time? Second, how would periphery long rates evolve relative to core rates? That is-the spread between long rates in the l...Starting at €8.20
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Draghi's Commitment
Warnock, Francis E.Case DARDEN-GEM-0113-EEconomicsFully updated through end-2015, this case examines the eurozone from the perspective of core and periphery long-term rates. By 2010, the “Great Convergence” in eurozone long-term rates during the late 1990s had given way to the “Great Divergence” in which German long-term yields fell to record lows while Greek yields bounced between 20% and 40%. Periphery bond markets improved sharply in late summer 2012 after Draghi committed to do “whatever it ...Starting at €8.20
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Janet Yellen: Navigating Uncharted Waters
Warnock, Francis E.Case DARDEN-GEM-0134-EEconomicsIn January 2016, Janet Yellen, finishing her second year as chair of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve, was navigating uncharted waters along a number of dimensions. She had inherited an unruly FOMC. Over the past year, some members had publicly called for more expansionary Fed policy; others called for an end to the expansionary Fed policy; and still others worried aloud that Fed policy might be creating bubbles and risks to fin...Starting at €8.20
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Background Note on the Philippines and Financial Inclusion
Warnock, Veronica Cacdac; Warnock, Francis E.;Technical Note DARDEN-GEM-0149-EEconomicsThis note provides context regarding financial inclusion in the Philippines. It discusses the nature of poverty in the country; provides details on the financial system, especially the financial organizations that serve the poor; and presents some initiatives to broaden access to finance.Starting at €8.20
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Global Asset Allocation: Whither the U.S. Dollar?
Warnock, Francis E.; Chandler, MarcCase DARDEN-F-1591-EFinanceFully updated through end-2016, this case is an in-depth study of long-run issues facing the U.S. dollar. Couched in terms of a pension fund manager having to make an international asset allocation decision that requires a 5- to 10-year view on the path of the U.S. dollar, it allows students to debate important factors such as the likely adjustment of private U.S. investors’ international portfolios, central bank diversification away from the dol...Starting at €8.20
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Fix or Float
Warnock, Francis E.Technical Note DARDEN-F-1746-EFinanceA fundamental policy decision every government must make is whether, and to what extent, to manage the exchange rate. This note discusses some of the basic costs and benefits of fixed and floating exchange rates.Starting at €8.20